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Somewhere out there, in a universe where Patrick Mahomes doesn't exist, Josh Allen is hailed as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, a multi-time Super Bowl champion whose resume is about as close to impeccable as it gets in a sport of imperfections.

But we don't live in that universe. We live in this one, where Allen is one of the greatest "What if?" quarterbacks.

What if he hadn't been inches short on a fourth-down sneak, or what if Dalton Kincaid had caught a miracle fourth-down pass last year? (Allen: 239 passing yards, 39 rushing yards, two touchdowns, zero turnovers)

What if Tyler Bass didn't miss that field goal two years ago? (Allen: 186 passing yards, 72 rushing yards, three touchdowns, zero turnovers)

What if the defense had held on for 13 agonizing seconds four years ago? (Allen: 329 passing yards, 68 rushing yards, four touchdowns, zero turnovers)

What if Mahomes and those pesky, covered-in-glory Kansas City Chiefs weren't in the way?

This year they aren't. Neither are Joe Burrow's Bengals or Lamar Jackson's Ravens. Over the past five years, Allen is 7-0 in the playoffs against anyone other than Mahomes or Burrow and 0-5 against Mahomes (0-4) and Burrow (0-1).

That makes this postseason, upon first glance, Allen's best shot at a Super Bowl. He's one of just two quarterbacks left with an MVP award (Aaron Rodgers). He's won more playoff games over the past five years than any other quarterback in the field, even more than Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford, who both have a Lombardi Trophy. If anyone is due for one, it's Allen: his seven playoff wins are most ever for a quarterback without even a Super Bowl appearance.

But the NFL doesn't career about "fair" or "due" or, in Allen and Buffalo Bills' case "long overdue." And that's where it gets tricky.

For the easiest factor to pick in favor of Allen and the Bills -- no Mahomes, finally -- there are several factors working against them, ones that will make a deep playoff run difficult, even if they have the trump card: the best quarterback still playing.

Josh Allen's golden ticket: The AFC finally opens, and history is waiting
Douglas Clawson
Josh Allen's golden ticket: The AFC finally opens, and history is waiting

The wide receivers are a mess

In the Bills' last game of meaning -- a 13-12 Week 17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles -- the Bills' most-used wide receivers were slot man Khalil Shakir and speedsters Tyrell Shavers and Brandin Cooks.

With no disrespect to any of them as players, that would clearly qualify as the worst group in the playoffs. Before his big game, Cooks had as many catches as drops (one each) with Buffalo this season. Shavers had one career catch entering this season. Shakir works almost exclusively on screens and short throws: His 3.7-yard average depth of target was last in the NFL among 68 qualifying wide receivers.

There is no true No. 1 here, nor even a No. 2. The Bills' best wide receiver in Pro Football Focus' grades (Shakir) doesn't rank in the top 40. Their best wide receiver in ESPN's Receiver Scores -- which uses "player-tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to evaluate every route a pass catcher runs" -- is Josh Palmer, who doesn't rank in the top 50. The team's best 50/50 ball winner, 2024 second-round pick Keon Coleman, hasn't even been active in meaningful games of late. Shakir is the Bills' leading receiver with 719 yards; the last Super Bowl-winning team featuring a leading receiver with that few yards is the 1990 New York Giants.

The Bills have handled this issue by leaning into multiple-tight end sets more often as the season progressed. Kincaid could be huge. This season, Allen has completed over 78% of his passes for 523 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions and a terrific 11.4 yards per attempt when targeting Kincaid.

Kincaid has missed a lot of time with a combination of oblique, knee and hamstring issues. He missed the Eagles game, and that absence loomed large over the entire operation. He is the team's best and most skilled receiving option, one who reshapes the offense with his vertical ability. Allen's passer rating and sack rate are much better this season with Kincaid on the field, and, notably, opponents blitz much less often when Kincaid is on the field, too.

The rushing defense is a mess

The Bills allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season. Only one team has allowed a higher average and gone on to win the Super Bowl: Peyton Manning's 2006 Indianapolis Colts. In fact, find any Super Bowl-winning team that has struggled to stop the run, and you'll find not just a Hall-of-Fame quarterback on the other side, but a legendary one: names like Manning, Mahomes, Brady, Elway, Rodgers and Brees.

It'd be one thing if the Bills were just a bad run defense on a play-by-play basis that could eventually stiffen in the red zone. In fact, the Bills are 22nd in defensive rushing success rate, bad but not awful. Where they are awful is big plays: Their 11.3% explosive rush rate allowed is the worst in the NFL this season. They allowed eight touchdown runs of 30+ yards this season, most in NFL history. In Week 15 alone against the New England Patriots, they allowed two TreVeyon Henderson touchdown runs of 50 or more yards. They came back to win that game on -- surprise -- Allen's shoulders, but it hardly seems like a viable way to win four postseason games en route to a Super Bowl title.

Is the rushing attack enough?

After Allen, the biggest argument in favor of the Bills is the rushing attack -- something Allen, of course, helps.

But James Cook has been the real breakout, one year after "the breakout." He led the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards, and he did it on a sterling 5.2 yards per carry. That is peak efficiency In fact, Cook's 309 carries were second-fewest ever for a 1,600-yard rusher. Only Jim Brown did it on fewer carries, and that was back in 1963.

The Bills went 3-3 in six games in which they had a sub-50% rushing success rate. That includes two losses to playoff teams -- the Patriots and the Houston Texans. And that leads into ...

Bills are No. 6 seed with tough road ahead

History does not smile upon teams seeded this poorly. Since the postseason field expanded to 12 in 1990, only two No. 6 seeds have even made the Super Bowl.

The argument here, of course, is that these Bills aren't your "normal" No. 6 seed, considering their quarterback and their 12 wins. But this will be no easy task. The Bills start with a visit on Sunday to the Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET, CBS and Paramount+), who have Trevor Lawrence playing at peak level. Not only that, but the Jaguars were the NFL's No. 1 rushing defense. This will be the seventh postseason meeting between the NFL's leading rusher and its leading rush defense, according to CBS Sports research. In the previous six meetings, the leading rushers posted under 50 yards per game.

Buffalo will also be on the road for not just that game but a second game if it gets there. Remember, this is a franchise that has lost eight straight road playoff games -- its last road playoff win was over 30 years ago -- it would likely have to win three straight to even reach the Super Bowl.

Of course, the Bills will have to prove they are not the Bills of yesteryear. There's no Mahomes, Burrow or Jackson. If there were ever a time for Allen to take the mantle, it's now. He just might have to be at his very, very best to do so.